Good-planning model that operationalizes Felipe Bovolon's "Good Planning Bad Planning" four-layer architecture as queryable swamp state. Strategy chooses; planning commits — this model holds the commitment.

Article: https://bovolon.substack.com/p/good-planning-bad-planning

A plan is not a slide deck. The article's thesis: the real plan is the pattern of commitments the organization has actually funded, sequenced, protected, and agreed to review. This model makes those commitments first- class state with explicit assumptions, signposts, tripwires, ceiling trigger points, and a pullback ladder — so the plan can be evaluated and revised on a cadence rather than executed-as-written until reality breaks it.

Four Layers (from the article)

• Layer 1 — Assumption: what the plan believes about the world. Each assumption has impact, vulnerability, and a signpost.
• Layer 2 — Allocative: what is actually funded and protected. Targets, forecasts, and allocations are tracked separately (Beyond Budgeting).
• Layer 3 — Coordinative: how commitments interlock. Captured via dependsOn on each commitment.
• Layer 4 — Adaptive: how the plan revises. Ceiling discipline (first-binding crux + trigger formula) and floor discipline (signposts → tripwires → pre-authorized actions
  • pullback ladder + max tolerable loss).

State Machine

drafted ──[commit]──> committed     (gated: all four layers populated)
committed ──[monitor]──> monitoring
monitoring ──[evaluate]──> monitoring  (read signposts, update layer state)
monitoring ──[trigger]──> adapting     (tripwire fired or ceiling crossed)
adapting ──[adapt]──> committed        (pullback or option exercised)
adapting ──[revise]──> drafted         (assumption broken — re-plan)
committed ──[archive]──> archived
monitoring ──[archive]──> archived

commit is the gate the article calls for: it refuses to leave drafted unless every layer is materially populated, including the six properties on every commitment (owner, resource, time, dependencies, review rule, consequence-if-changed) and at least one tripwire on the floor side.

Methods

• start — create a draft plan with strategicChoice + horizon
• add_assumption — record an assumption with impact / vulnerability / signpost
• add_commitment — record a commitment or hypothesis (six-property gate)
• add_allocation — record protected budget per priority (Layer 2)
• add_ceiling — record a first-binding crux + lead time + signpost
• add_tripwire — record a signpost threshold + pre-authorized action
• set_pullback_ladder — ordered list of cuts (what to cut first)
• set_loss_budget — sunk + shutdown + liabilities + working-capital + tail
• commit — gate; transitions drafted → committed
• monitor — committed → monitoring
• evaluate — read a signpost; updates assumption/tripwire/ceiling state
• trigger — explicit transition into adapting (action required)
• adapt — record adaptation taken; back to committed
• revise — assumption broken; back to drafted
• archive — terminal
• hydrate — write a compact governability scorecard summary
• audit — answer the four diagnostic questions (one per layer)

2026.05.01.1 — Add article link to extension description

Surface the source article URL directly in the manifest description so the swamp.club extension page links to it without forcing readers into the README:

Article: https://bovolon.substack.com/p/good-planning-bad-planning

The link was already present in README.md, SKILL.md, and the model source file as a citation, but missing from the manifest description that drives the registry summary card. No code or schema changes — this is a metadata-only release.